What is the forecast for Brazil's carbon credits market size by 2033?

The Brazil carbon credits market is projected to surge from USD 2.11 billion in 2024 to USD 24.84 billion by 2033, registering a CAGR of 28.40%.

SãO PAULO, BRASíLIA, BRAZIL, October 9, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Brazil Carbon Credits Market Summary 2025

Market Size in 2024: USD 2.11 Billion
Market Forecast in 2033: USD 24.84 Billion
Market Growth Rate 2025-2033: 28.40%

The Brazil carbon credits market is projected to surge from USD 2.11 billion in 2024 to USD 24.84 billion by 2033, registering a CAGR of 28.40%. Expanding voluntary demand, federal green-hydrogen subsidies and new forest-carbon methodologies are steering domestic supply and export volumes alike.

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Brazil Carbon Credits Market Growth Drivers

National Green Hydrogen Policy Guarantees of Origin Create New Supply

The 2025 programme awards one certificate per MWh of renewable H₂, with producers already pre-registering 2.4 GW of projects. Guarantees are sold on a dedicated platform at an average €8 premium over standard RECs, generating an additional 480,000 credits annually. The policy is accelerating electrolyser deployment and deepening tradable inventory within the Brazil carbon credits market.

Amazon Fund Reopens to International Buyers After Climate Diplomacy

Norway and Germany resumed transfers in March 2025, unlocking USD 350 million for avoided-deforestation credits. Satellite-verified REDD+ issuances jumped 38% quarter-on-quarter, while corporate buyers locked in 10-year offtake contracts at €15 per tonne. The diplomatic thaw is steering fresh foreign capital into forest conservation and reinforcing supply growth across Brazil carbon credits projects.

BNDES Launches Reverse Auction for Bio-methane Certificates

The 2025 auction allocates BRL 1.2 billion to purchase 12 million certificates from landfill and wastewater projects. Winning bids averaged €12 per tonne CO₂e, creating a price floor that encourages 320 new bio-digester installations. The guaranteed offtake is accelerating waste-to-energy capex and expanding the compliance-eligible pool for Brazil carbon credits.

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Brazil Carbon Credits Market Segmentation

Type Insights:
• Compliance
• Voluntary

Project Type Insights:
• Avoidance/Reduction Projects
• Removal/Sequestration Projects
o Nature-based
o Technology-based

End-Use Industry Insights:
• Power
• Energy
• Aviation
• Transportation
• Buildings
• Industrial
• Others

Regional Insights:
• Southeast
• South
• Northeast
• North
• Central-West

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape of the industry has also been examined along with the profiles of the key players.

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Brazil Carbon Credits Market News

• Mar 2025: A São Paulo utility issues the first green-hydrogen guarantee of origin, selling 50,000 credits to German buyers within 24 hours.
• Apr 2025: The Amazon Fund approves a USD 60 million grant for community-based REDD+ projects covering 400,000 hectares in Pará.
• May 2025: A Brazilian start-up tokenises 1 million forest credits on a blockchain platform, enabling fractional trading for SMEs.
• Jun 2025: The Ministry of Environment recognises sugar-cane bagasse carbon credits as eligible for the national cap-and-trade scheme.

Key highlights of the Report:

• Market Performance (2019-2024)
• Market Outlook (2025-2033)
• COVID-19 Impact on the Market
• Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
• Strategic Recommendations
• Historical, Current and Future Market Trends
• Market Drivers and Success Factors
• SWOT Analysis
• Structure of the Market
• Value Chain Analysis
• Comprehensive Mapping of the Competitive Landscape

Note: If you need specific information that is not currently within the scope of the report, we can provide it to you as part of the customization.

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